Table 2 Association between variables and flares (multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model Anderson-Gill method) and ULT initiation (multivariate logistic regression)

Age (25–49 reference)

50–59

0.99 (0.93–1.06)

0.827

0.96 (0.90–1.02)

0.168

60–69

1.07 (1.00–1.14)

0.037

0.87 (0.82–0.94)

< 0.001

70–79

1.10 (1.02–1.18)

0.011

0.73 0.68–0.79)

< 0.001

80 + 

1.00 (0.92–1.09)

0.988

0.50 (0.45–0.55)

< 0.001

Sex (ref male)

Female

0.69 (0.66–0.73)

< 0.001

0.83 (0.78–0.88)

< 0.001

Ethnicity (ref White)

Black

1.16 (1.08–1.25)

< 0.001

1.06 (0.97–1.15)

0.193

South Asian

1.00 (0.85–1.18)

0.967

0.83 (0.69–1.00)

0.047

Mixed Race

0.86 (0.60–1.24)

0.419

0.91 (0.58–1.41)

0.658

Other

1.13 (0.98–1.30)

0.085

0.97 (0.83–1.14)

0.735

Missing

1.01 (0.97–1.05)

0.601

0.93 (0.88–0.99)

0.017

IMD (ref 1st (least deprived) decile)

2

1.07 (0.97–1.17)

0.159

1.00 (0.89–1.12)

0.967

3

1.00 (0.91–1.09)

0.953

1.06 (0.93–1.20)

0.381

4

1.08 (0.98–1.19)

0.142

1.10 (0.97–1.25)

0.121

5

1.14 (1.02–1.28)

0.020

1.18 (1.02–1.35)

0.025

Missing

1.14 (1.06–1.22)

< 0.001

1.36 (1.22–1.51)

< 0.001

BMI kg/m² (ref 20–24.9)

< 20

0.95 (0.77–1.17)

0.647

0.85 (0.69–1.05)

0.126

25–29.9

1.10 (1.04–1.17)

0.001

1.21 (1.13–1.30)

< 0.001

30–34.9

1.18 (1.10–1.25)

 < 0.001

1.27 (1.18–1.37)

< 0.001

35 + 

1.36 (1.27–1.47)

< 0.001

1.34 (1.24–1.45)

< 0.001

Missing

1.14 (1.04–1.25)

0.006

1.11 (1.00–1.23)

0.042

Alcohol units per week (ref 0)

1–9

0.98 (0.91–1.06)

0.668

0.77 (0.70–0.85)

< 0.001

10–24

0.98 (0.91–1.06)

0.606

0.81 (0.74–0.89)

< 0.001

25–42

1.09 (0.99–1.19)

0.091

0.84 (0.75–0.94)

0.003

> 42

1.11 (0.97–1.26)

0.117

0.79 (0.69–0.91)

0.001

Missing

0.99 (0.92–1.06)

0.784

0.82 (0.75–0.89)

< 0.001

Hypertension

1.09 (1.03–1.14)

0.001

1.03 (0.98–1.08)

0.265

Type 1 diabetes

0.96 (0.73–1.25)

0.757

0.93 (0.69–1.25)

0.626

Type 2 diabetes

1.04 (0.97–1.10)

0.255

0.86 (0.80–0.92)

< 0.001

Heart Failure

1.38 (1.27–1.49)

< 0.001

1.44 (1.29–1.59)

< 0.001

CVD

1.22 (1.15–1.31)

< 0.001

0.97 (0.91–1.04)

0.433

Diuretics

1.18 (1.12–1.24)

< 0.001

1.27 (1.20–1.35)

< 0.001

Aspirin

0.96 (0.91–1.03)

0.242

1.11 (1.04–1.19)

0.002

CKD (ref none)

CKD Stage 3

1.33 (1.26–1.40)

< 0.001

1.51 (1.42–1.60)

< 0.001

CKD stage 4

1.37 (1.19–1.56)

< 0.001

1.87 (1.59–2.21)

< 0.001

CKD stage 5

1.08 (0.86–1.35)

0.493

1.55 (1.23–1.96)

< 0.001

Serum urate µmol/L (ref < 360)

360–419

1.91 (1.65–2.22)

< 0.001

2.74 (2.34–3.21)

< 0.001

420–479

2.64 (2.31–3.01)

< 0.001

4.49 (3.85–5.23)

< 0.001

480–539

3.43 (3.00–3.92)

< 0.001

6.83 (5.86–7.96)

< 0.001

 ≥ 540

4.63 (4.03–5.31)

< 0.001

11.16 (9.56–13.04)

< 0.001

Missing

2.62 (2.30–2.98)

< 0.001

4.02 (3.45–4.69)

< 0.001

Number of flares

-

-

1.43 (1.38–1.48)

< 0.001