Table 2 Model input parameters for strategies used, showing the parameter, the value (probability) used in the model, the 95% CI interval, the distribution used and the data source

Patient Demographics

Sex (male)

38.4%

37.0%

39.8%

Beta

[8, 10, 20, 43]

Age group

< 34

9.8%

8.9%

10.6%

Dirichlet

[8, 10, 20, 43]

35–44

14.3%

13.3%

15.4%

Dirichlet

[8, 10, 20, 43]

45–54

21.5%

20.3%

22.7%

Dirichlet

[8, 10, 20, 43]

55–64

26.9%

25.7%

28.2%

Dirichlet

[8, 10, 20, 43]

65–75

11.9%

11.0%

12.8%

Dirichlet

[8, 10, 20, 43]

> 75

15.5%

14.5%

16.5%

Dirichlet

[8, 10, 20, 43]

Probability DVT

Incidence DVT

15.8%

14.2%

17.4%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

CDR

GP applies CDR

79.3%

76.7%

81.8%

Beta

[11]

CDR ≥4

42.6%

40.4%

44.8%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Arrival patient at GP

Arrival patient before 13:00 h

70.8%

33.1%

100.0%

Beta

[1, 22,23,24, 44]

Regular strategy (CDR not applied)

Incidence DVT regular CUS

15.8%

14.2%

17.4%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Sensitivity regular CUS

93.8%

81.9%

100.0%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Specificity regular CUS

97.8%

94.7%

100.0%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Incidence DVT regular D-di

15.8%

14.2%

17.4%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Sensitivity regular D-di

97.9%

90.9%

100.0%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Specificity regular D-di

54.2%

43.6%

64.9%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Incidence DVT regular CUS after D-di

28.6%

16.5%

40.6%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Sensitivity regular CUS after D-di

93.8%

81.8%

100.0%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Specificity regular CUS after D-di

97.8%

93.2%

100.0%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

POCT-based approaches (CDR not applied)

Incidence DVT CUS

35.7%

21.1%

50.4%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Sensitivity CUS

93.8%

81.5%

100.0%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Specificity CUS

97.8%

92.2%

100.0%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Incidence DVT D-di

15.8%

14.2%

17.4%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Sensitivity D-di

93.2%

80.5%

100.0%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Specificity D-di

68.6%

58.7%

78.5%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Regular strategy (CDR applied)

Incidence DVT > 13:00 h CUS

3.8%

2.7%

4.9%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Sensitivity > 13:00 h CUS

93.8%

69.5%

100.0%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Specificity > 13:00 h CUS

97.8%

94.9%

100.0%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Incidence DVT < 13:00 h D-di

3.8%

2.7%

4.9%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Sensitivity < 13:00 h D-di

97.9%

83.7%

100.0%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Specificity < 13:00 h D-di

54.2%

44.3%

64.2%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Incidence DVT < 13:00 h CUS after D-di

7.8%

6.2%

9.3%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Sensitivity < 13:00 h CUS after D-di

93.8%

69.3%

100.0%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Specificity < 13:00 h CUS after D-di

97.8%

93.5%

100.0%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

POCT-based approaches (CDR applied)

Incidence DVT POCT D-di

3.8%

2.7%

4.9%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Sensitivity POCT D-di

93.2%

68.0%

100.0%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Specificity POCT D-di

68.6%

59.3%

77.9%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Incidence DVT CUS after POCT D-di

10.5%

0.1%

20.8%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Sensitivity POCT CUS after POCT D-di

93.8%

68.7%

100.0%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Specificity POCT CUS after POCT D-di

97.8%

92.6%

100.0%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Incidence CUS after > 4 CDR

31.5%

28.4%

34.7%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Sensitivity CUS after > 4 CDR

93.8%

69.5%

100.0%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Specificity CUS after > 4 CDR

97.8%

94.9%

100.0%

Beta

[12, 25, 43]

Complications

PE

27.0%

13.6%

40.4%

Beta

[8]

PTS

6.0%

3.1%

9.0%

Beta

[45]

Major Bleeding

3.5%

1.8%

5.2%

Beta

[46, 47]

Recurrence

5.0%

2.6%

7.5%

Beta

[48]