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Table 5 Likelihood ratios of the positive (LR+) and negative test result (LR-) of two prediction rulesa in subgroups of the imputed original database and in the full record database (95%CI).

From: Clinical prediction rules combining signs, symptoms and epidemiological context to distinguish influenza from influenza-like illnesses in primary care: a cross sectional study

   

During influenza epidemic

Pre/post an influenza epidemic

 

Prediction rulea

n

LR+

LR-

LR+

LR-

Full record analysis

1

3738

3.65 (1.76 to 5.54)

0.23 (0.08 to 0.37)

1.23 (0.34 to 2.11)

0.04 (0.01 to 0.06)

 

2

 

2.24 (1.95 to 2.54)

0.27 (0.12 to 0.41)

0.43 (0.33 to 0.54)

0.05 (0.02 to 0.08)

Influenza A

1

4176

3.43 (2.69 to 4.18)

0.30 (0.20 to 0.40)

1.46 (1.05 to 1.87)

0.05 (0.03 to 0.06

 

2

 

2.21 (2.06 to 2.36)

0.33 (0.26 to 0.41)

0.46 (0.40 to 0.51)

0.07 (0.05 to 0.09)

Influenza B

1

2566

5.05 (3.75 to 6.36)

0.13 (0.07 to 0.19)

1.16 (0.64 to 1.68)

0.01 (0.00 to 0.02)

 

2

 

4.01 (3.68 to 4.33)

0.34 (0.20 to 0.48)

0.49 (0.37 to 0.61)

0.04 (0.02 to 0.07)

Influenza year (2002 - 2003)

1

584

3.73 (0.63 to 6.83)

0.13 (0.00 to 0.32)

1.79 (0.19 to 3.39)

0.06 (0.00 to 0.13)

 

2

 

2.28 (1.72 to 2.83)

0.22 (0.00 to 0.45)

1.08 (0.84 to 1.32)

0.10 (0.01 to 0.19)

Influenza year (2003 - 2004)

1

1064

4.00 (0.49 to 7.51)

0.13 (0.04 to 0.21)

1.72 (0.00 to 4.10)

0.02 (0.01 to 0.03)

 

2

 

2.19 (1.87 to 2.51)

0.25 (0.15 to 0.36)

0.36 (0.24 to 0.47)

0.04 (0.02 to 0.06)

Influenza year (2004 - 2005)

1

995

3.93 (2.07 to 5.78)

0.32 (0.13 to 0.51)

3.03 (1.64 to 4.42)

0.07 (0.03 to 0.10)

 

2

 

2.52 (2.16 to 2.88)

0.42 (0.23 to 0.62)

0.79 (0.65 to 0.93)

0.13 (0.07 to 0.19)

Influenza year (2005 - 2006)

1

785

2.90 (1.03 to 4.77)

0.40 (0.05 to 0.74)

0.65 (0.28 to 1.02)

0.06 (0.02 to 0.11)

 

2

 

2.90 (2.47 to 3.33)

0.61 (0.29 to 0.92)

0.50 (0.40 to 0.60)

0.10 (0.06 to 0.15)

Influenza year (2006 - 2007)

1

1156

2.04 (1.19 to 2.90)

0.33 (0.09 to 0.57)

1.07 (0.39 to 1.75)

0.04 (0.01 to 0.08)

 

2

 

1.79 (1.59 to 2.00)

0.24 (0.13 to 0.35)

0.38 (0.27 to 0.50)

0.05 (0.02 to 0.08)

Age < 5 years

1

267

2.70 (0.00 to 6.02)

0.06 (0.00 to 0.82)

0.69 (0.00 to 2.24)

0.01 (0.00 to 0.11)

 

2

 

1.58 (1.10 to 2.05)

0.12 (0.00 to 1.12)

0.25 (0.08 to 0.42)

0.02 (0.00 to 0.17)

Age 5 to 14 years

1

931

3.57 (1.08 to 6.07)

0.14 (0.00 to 0.27)

1.43 (0.25 to 2.61)

0.03 (0.00 to 0.05)

 

2

 

1.91 (1.65 to 2.16)

0.22 (0.02 to 0.42)

0.44 (0.32 to 0.56)

0.05 (0.00 to 0.10)

Age 15 to 64 years

1

3137

3.77 (2.69 to 4.85)

0.31 (0.22 to 0.41)

1.71 (1.09 to 2.34)

0.05 (0.03 to 0.07)

 

2

 

2.29 (2.10 to 2.48)

0.32 (0.24 to 0.41)

0.48 (0.42 to 0.54)

0.07 (0.05 to 0.09)

Age > 64 years

1

249

5.31 (0.00 to 20.43)

0.39 (0.00 to 1.01)

0.67 (0.00 to 2.91)

0.14 (0.00 to 0.29)

 

2

 

1.68 (0.91 to 2.44)

0.24 (0.00 to 0.73)

0.46 (0.26 to 0.66)

0.07 (0.00 to 0.16)

  1. CI = confidence interval
  2. a Prediction rule 1 = influenza epidemic + previous ILI contact + cough + expectoration on day1 + body temp > 37.8°C; Prediction rule 2 = influenza epidemic + cough + body temp > 37.8°C